We have a trio of Game 2’s on the docket tonight, and my NBA picks have every sort of bettor covered. Do you want a pick on the spread or the total? Check. How about a big-name player prop? Got you covered. A lottery ticket that could fund the next few days of betting? Let’s dive in!
NBA Playoff Predictions and Best Bets for April 23
Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves (7:40 p.m. ET)
- Spread: Timberwolves -3
- Moneyline: Timberwolves -155, Suns +130
- Total: 213
In Game 1, the Suns showcased a limited range of usage and I think we see something similar as they try to steal a game in Minnesota. Through 45.5 minutes on Saturday, one (1) Sun reserve had a bucket. I don’t love that when it comes to sustainable success, but if they elect to push hard tonight with the hope to rely more on their depth when they return home, their Big Three is as capable as any of getting the job done.
That game plan means the “other” Suns are pigeonholed into their specific roles. Grayson Allen (0 2PA in 25 minutes) and Royce O’Neale (eight of his 10 shots were 3’s) have very specific roles, while Jusuf Nurkic is a rim runner who lives off of table scraps.
Their starting center took three shots in a two-minute stretch early in the first quarter and attempted just three during the rest of the game. For the season, over 80% of Nurkic’s field goal attempts come inside of 10 feet, putting him in the worst place possible against the giant Timberwolves
Regular season opponent FG%, Timberwolves
- Inside of five feet: 60.2% (2nd lowest)
- Shots from 5-9 feet: 40.2% (5th lowest)
We know where the Suns’ production is coming from and we know what Nurkic’s role in their system is. He averaged 8.3 FGA in February, a number that dropped to 7.1 in March, and again to 6.1 to round out the regular season in April.
Phoenix feels destined to put the fate of their season in the hands of their big three. While Nurkic may play an important role in their ability to split these first two games, his touch around the rim is unlikely to be an asset that this team explores in this matchup.
In Game 1, both teams attempted 20+ free throws and that is a trend that I believe has some staying power. The ‘Wolves were the 10th most foul-prone defense this season, and with both teams ranking in the top five in the ability to draw fouls, parades to the stripe figure are likely to be commonplace tonight and in this series as a whole.
In 28 games this regular season, this aggressive Minnesota team saw both sides attempt at least 20 freebies. In those games, there was an average of 221.6 points scored, clearing our listed total of 213 points 21 times.
Eight of the Timberwolves’ last nine such games (20+ FTA for both teams) went over 213 points and that doesn’t include Saturday (215 points scored). Also of note is the fact that Minnesota has lost 10 such games this season, nine of them clearing our 213-point threshold. Further detail on those 28 games when compared to the other 54 this regular season:
- 3.6% of games did MIN make over 15 3’s
- (rate otherwise: 20.4%)
- 71.4% of games did MIN take under 35 3PA
- (rate otherwise: 64.8%)
Those trends track – more free throws mean fewer possessions ending with a shot, and fewer shots means fewer threes. I like the idea of targeting the 3PM market in this spot, a dangerous game to play due to the variance, but one that I think the public overestimates.
That brings me to Anthony Edwards. He was amazing in Game 1 and watching a young star live in the moment like that is exactly what makes this postseason so much fun. Recreating that energy is tough, and if you deep dive into the advanced stats from Game 1, he’s unlikely to post a similar performance in Game 2.
Game 1, Anthony Edwards
- 35.7% turnover rate on drives
- (regular season: 7.5%)
- 42.9% on pull-up 3PA
- (regular season: 33.4%)
- 56.3% on pull-up FGA
- (regular season: 36.2%)
Ant Man overachieved in a significant way on those pull-up jumpers in Game 1, and the Suns were shockingly successful when he put his head down. To me, it’s clear that Phoenix is going to continue to stress forcing him to put the ball on the ground, something that dips the 3PM expectancy before you even adjust for Edwards’ pull-up shooting to regress closer to his regular season norm.
- Pick: Jusuf Nurkic under 9.5 points
- Pick: Over 213 points
- Upside SGP: Suns moneyline, Jusuf Nurkic under 9.5 points, Anthony Edwards under 2.5 3PM (+625 at DraftKings, spikes to +1600 with “over 213 points”)
*I opted not to include the over in my listed SGP, using that bet to give me a way to break even in this game should the SGP and/or Nurkic bet fall short.
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks (8:40 p.m. ET)
- Spread: Bucks -1.5
- Moneyline: Bucks -120, Pacers +100
- Total: 222.5
Sportsbooks have regressed their point total projections from Game 1, but I still don’t think it’s enough. Ahead of Game 1, I wrote:
Indiana trading for Pascal Siakam was a power-shifting sort of deal at the time, but it would seem that the betting public is a little slow to adjust to exactly what the former Raptor has meant to this team (offensive/defensive numbers are per 100 possession production, pace is possessions per 48 minutes)
- Pre-Siakam: 123.0 offense – 120.8 defense – 102.1 pace
- Post-All-Star Break: 122.3 offense – 115.7 defense – 99.7 pace
- Last eight games: 127.2 offense – 114.2 defense – 99.6 pace
I used the “post-All-Star Break” numbers to adjust for a learning curve that took place in the month immediately following Siakam joining the team. As you can see, the run-and-gun Pacers have slowed the pace a bit and ramped up the defense without sacrificing much on the offensive end.
READ MORE: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Series Preview, Picks, and Predictions
We are comfortable with this being a coin-flip type of game, giving them every opportunity to dictate tempo. If this version of their team doesn’t want to play at warp speed and offers more versatility on the defensive end, does this game shoot out the way the sportsbooks are implying?
Do you remember the last time we saw a Bucks playoff game with Antetokounmpo? They scored 99 points against the Heat despite making 38.5% of their triples in a game that lacked tempo (85 FGA) and aggression (eight FTM). The roster today is different than it was then, but with Brook Lopez’s role regressing and Khris Middleton’s game aging, I’m not sure the result will be much different.
If Indiana wins this game, I like where this bet stands because it likely means that their recent defensive growth is sustained. If Milwaukee wins this game, I like where this bet stands because it likely means that they were able to limit the possession count – they’re not winning a shootout with the Pacers.
In Game 1, the home team scored 109 points. Sure, some of that was a result of the game flow, but in a game where we got peak Damian Lillard for a half (35 points), discovered vintage Khris Middleton (23 points on 80% shooting from inside the arc), saw the Bucks bury 14 triples (three from microwave scorer Michael Beasley), and not miss a free throw.
That’s a lot of things to go right to come up short of the adjusted total, let alone what was listed ahead of the series opener. I’m assuming that Antetokounmpo (knee) sits, given that they have a series lead and two days off before heading to Indiana for Game 3, and I think that is also the assumption of the bookmakers.
In that vein, I don’t blame you if you want to sacrifice maybe 1-2 points and wait for the news. I’m not. I’ve already bet this number, and if Antetokounmpo returns, I may double down on my position depending on what the new total is.
Pick: Bucks under 111.5 points
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers (10:10 p.m. ET)
- Spread: Mavericks -2.5
- Moneyline: Mavericks -142, Clippers +120
- Total: 218
I’m largely preaching patience and consistency through the first week of the postseason, but if there was a game that came close to scaring me off of my priors, it was the first one in this series.
READ MORE: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks Series Preview, Picks, and Predictions
In a game in which the Mavericks funneled nearly everything through Kyrie Irving/Luka Doncic (66% of their points on 55% of their shots) and the Clippers didn’t have the versatility of Kawhi Leonard to offset that duo, Los Angeles never once trailed. They dominated from start to finish and had an answer for every punch Dallas tried to throw.
Yes, it was only one game, but the underlying metrics are even scarier than the traditional ones.
Luka Doncic
- Game 1: Attempted a shot on 28% of his drives
- Regular season: Attempted a shot on 44.4% of his drives
If the Clippers had a defensive plan to cut off his water on those drives and were able to execute it without their top defender, what’s to say that changes tonight? Of course, Doncic got loose for 33 points, but all signs point to him being defended well, and that point total symbolizes more of a ceiling than an expectation.
Regular Season, Doncic
- FG%: 48.7%
- 3P%: 38.2%
- FTA/FGA: 0.37
- Assist-to-turnover: 2.4
Game 1, Doncic
- FG%: 42.3%
- 3P%: 33.3%
- FTA/FGA: 0.31 (down 16.2%)
- Assist-to-turnover: 1.5 (down 37.5%)
Despite the impressive performance by the Clippers, Doncic remains projected to hit his regular season average. I understand the origination of the line, but I truly believe we have more paths to winning an under-bet than an over-one. And that’s without accounting for the potential for Leonard to surprise and play. It’s also without me having mentioned that Game 1 was played at a pace that was 8% lower than Dallas’ season norm.
Pick: Luka Doncic under 33.5 points
NBA Picks for April 23
- Jusuf Nurkic under 9.5 points
- PHO-MIN over 213 points
- Bucks under 111.5 points
- Luka Doncic under 33.5 points
Upside SGP: Suns moneyline, Jusuf Nurkic under 9.5 points, Anthony Edwards under 2.5 3PM (+625 at DraftKings, spikes to +1600 with “over 213 points”) *I opted not to include the over in my listed SGP, using that bet to give me a way to break even in this game should the SGP and/or Nurkic bet fall short.
Soppe’s NBA Playoffs Betting Record: 11-13 (-3.49 units)