After some brief hope that the 2024 F1 season may be more competitive than we feared, that has been snatched away by two dominating Max Verstappen performances. In the Miami Grand Prix, the Red Bull driver will be hoping to make it back-to-back weeks of winning both the Sprint Race and the full Grand Prix, while also seeking his sixth-straight pole position.
For anyone hoping that we might see an upset in Miami, the history of the race does not suggest that. Verstappen has won both of the first two races here. The one somewhat positive aspect for fans is that both races have been won by fewer than six seconds. However, last year, he took the pole position, won the race, and had the fastest lap.
This weekend will see another running of the Sprint Race format, meaning the schedule for the Miami Grand Prix looks different from previous runnings. Let’s examine the Miami Grand Prix schedule, take a look at the odds, and give our preview, picks, and best bets for what should hopefully be an entertaining weekend of racing.
What Is the Schedule for the Miami Grand Prix?
In China, the days of the Grand Prix weekend are the traditional Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, but in the US, the “weekend” starts Thursday evening and culminates in the early hours of Sunday morning. Here are the full dates and times for all the action from the Miami Grand Prix.
- Free Practice 1
12:30-1:30 p.m. ET Friday, May 3 - Sprint Qualifying
4:30-5:15 p.m. ET Friday, May 3 - Sprint Race
12-1 p.m. ET Saturday, May 4 - Qualifying
4-5 p.m. ET Saturday, May 4 - Race
4 p.m. ET Sunday, May 5
2024 Miami Grand Prix Preview
History, both this year and past years, tells us that it is extremely likely that Verstappen should win this Grand Prix in Miami, and he may well also win the Sprint. The odds for Verstappen to win the Grand Prix are -600, while the odds for him to win the Sprint Race are -500.
Normally, we look at where we can value in elements like a double Red Bull podium, but even that is of limited value at -250 for both the Sprint Race and Grand Prix. The domination of Red Bull has left us with very little value in betting on them, outside of hoping Verstappen has issues and Sergio Pérez then takes a win this weekend.
You can find Pérez at +1100 to win the Grand Prix and +1000 to win the Sprint Race. Given that he is known as a street race specialist, he would be expected to be in a prime position to win if Verstappen were to run into issues. In the last two years, he has finished second and fourth in the Miami Grand Prix. In the last street race in Saudi Arabia, Pérez was a comfortable second behind Verstappen.
Of the chasing pack, Fernando Alonso is perhaps the most intriguing after finishing third in this race last year. That group of Alonso, the Ferraris, the Mercedes, and the McLarens have been a tough group to judge this year, with each of them having their moments. After a strong performance last week, the sportsbooks have put Lando Norris alongside Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr. as the most likely podium finishers.
Miami Grand Prix Odds and Picks
With things having returned to normal in recent weeks, we have had more evidence of just why Verstappen will be a heavy favorite nearly all year. Each week it just seems inevitable that he will win. Even the slightly more “random” Sprint format still sees him as a heavy favorite, as the odds from DraftKings Sportsbook below demonstrate.
Race Winner Odds (Sprint Race Odds)
- Max Verstappen -600 (-500)
- Sergio Pérez +1100 (+1000)
- Charles Leclerc +1800 (+1600)
- Carlos Sainz Jr. +1800 (+1600)
- Lando Norris +1800 (+1600)
- George Russell +4500 (+3500)
- Lewis Hamilton +4500 (+3500)
- Oscar Piastri +4500 (+3500)
- Fernando Alonso +4500 (+3500)
*Anyone not listed has odds greater than +5000
Once again, I will be looking at how to bet on Verstappen at the best value and then hedging with a sprinkle on Pérez. The best value with Verstappen remains betting on a combination of him winning the race, getting the fastest lap, and qualifying on pole in Saturday’s qualifying.
The trio can be found at -115 but can be risky as we saw last time out if someone changes strategy and gets the chance to put in some quick laps late in the race. However, taking the fastest lap out of those combinations leaves you looking at -310 or worse value, which is hard to lay, even on someone as talented as Verstappen.
There are a couple of intriguing long-shot values. Taking Pérez to shine on a street circuit to win either the Sprint Race (+1000) or the Grand Prix (+1100) as a hedge to Verstappen is one option. I also like the value in betting on Alonso to make the podium in the Grand Prix at +1100 or the Sprint Race at +650.
If you want to be a little less bold, then Alonso to finish in the top six in the Sprint Race at -140 or the Grand Prix at -120 are both options to consider.
Miami Grand Prix Picks
- Verstappen to win the Grand Prix, qualify on pole, and have the Fastest Lap (-115)
- Perez to win the Sprint Race (+1000; 0.25 units) or Grand Prix (+1100; 0.25 units)
- Alonso to finish on the podium in the Sprint Race (+650; 0.25 units) or Grand Prix (+1100; 0.25 units)