Baseball is full of encouraging young arms, and a few of them are off to great starts in 2024. The MLB picks for today evaluate what a couple of them have done up to this point and if they should be backed tonight!
MLB Best Bets for April 22
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds (6:40 p.m. ET)
- Starting Pitchers
Ranger Suarez (PHI)
Hunter Greene (CIN) - Moneyline and Run Line
Phillies -122, -1.5 (+130)
Reds +102, +1.5 (-155) - Total: 9
Over -112
Under -108
In the year 2024, we have a ton of data at our disposal and it’s irresponsible to not at least explore some of the predictive numbers. His ground ball rate is nice, and I use it, but a high ground ball rate can mask the occasional bomb, one swing that ruins a bet that otherwise looked good if you were backing a starting pitcher with a specific profile.
Instead, I like to take a look at the average launch angle. That’s not to say that it is a perfect metric by any means, but it does weigh a majestic home run more than the ground ball rate does. Therefore, I feel that it does a better job of including the risk profile of a specific pitcher.
Some of the league leaders last season in (lowest) launch angle:
- 1st: Logan Webb: Cy Young runner-up
- 4th: Sandy Alcantara: 11 starts with 7+ innings pitched
- 7th: Zach Eflin: Career season in ERA and WHIP
It tracks. If your opponent can’t get the ball into the air, they are eventually going to run out of luck and hit the ball at the infielders. Ranger Suarez is the current league leader in average launch angle allowed, growth that comes with the upside of throwing a complete game, even in the early season and in this age of pitch management (Tuesday vs. the Rockies: nine shutout innings with eight strikeouts).
This season, the Reds rank in the middle third of the league in wOBA despite owning the top five in ISO (isolated power). The home run has been bailing out an otherwise ordinary offense, something that I don’t expect to be the case against Suarez – ground balls don’t clear the wall, it’s that simple.
Could the Cincinnati power prove more stable than Suarez’s early season success? In theory, yes, but with the Reds ranking bottom 10 in team average launch angle, the math very much prefers the pitcher in this specific matchup.
In picking against Hunter Greene, I’m siding with fading variance. Suarez is going to run into some poor luck now and again, but the ability to keep the ball on the ground raises his production floor. That’s not the case for the flame-throwing Greene.
The 24-year-old has allowed more runs than innings completed in four of his past 11 outings, a downside that is worrisome against an offense that ranks top 10 in hard-hit rate.
- Pick: Phillies ML
- Pick: Phillies -1.5
- Pick: Hunter Greene to allow the first ER
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
- Starting Pitchers
Albert Suarez (BAL)
Reid Detmers (LAA) - Moneyline and Run Line
Orioles +100, -1.5 (+164)
Angels -120, +1.5 (-198) - Total: 8.5
Over -120
Under +100
In this game, we have two of the top five offenses in the league in hard-hit percentage. On the mound, we have one potential ace and another just trying to stay on the roster.
All of the offensive boxes are checked, putting the onus on the pitchers to quiet them. Can Reid Detmers and/or Albert Suarez do that? I’m not so sure.
For Detmers, this is a step up in competition in a major way and will test the growth he has shown up to this point. Could the gains be real (and spectacular)? I’m certainly not ruling it out, but after a season in which he owned a fastball that graded out in the bottom 30% of the big leagues (in terms of value), Detmers’ heater has proven to be substantially more effective this season and is currently more valuable than the fastball of Zack Wheeler.
Is that the product of Detmers’ development or luck? I’m not willing to make a broad statement on that question as we sit here in April, but I will tell you that I need more convincing. Three of his four starts have come against teams that operate from an 0-1 count as often as anyone, something the Orioles rank 30th in.
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Both of these teams rank in the top half of the league in handling the fastball this season, carrying over a trend that developed last year. That not only puts the O’s in a spot to get to Detmers, but it makes Suarez vulnerable as well. The converted reliever has thrown a fastball for the majority of his big league pitches and is exploring other options for the first time in his MLB career after a stint in Korea.
If Suarez can’t establish his primary pitch, things could unravel quickly. The O’s have scored at least four runs in eight straight games and project well in this matchup, so even if Suarez can find some success, that doesn’t mean these offenses are kept quite for the entire evening.
- Pick: Over 8.5
MLB Picks for April 22
- Pick: Phillies ML (-122)
- Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+130)
- Pick: Hunter Greene to allow the first ER (-180)
For additional picks, follow Matt Infante on Pikkit @InfanteBets and Kyle Soppe on X.
MLB Season Betting Record
- Soppe: 47-39-1