At this point of the season, teams have very clear identities and aspirations. Injuries, fatigue, and matchups all play a part every night, but even then teams have clear tendencies that can be exploited.
There are eight games on the schedule tonight. Here are the NBA’s best bets this St. Patrick’s Day.
NBA Best Bet #1: Atlanta Hawks -4.5 (-115)
I’ve made a habit of betting against the Warriors in away games this season, and I’m sticking to it with this one. Golden State has a 7-27 record on the road and an 8-24-1 record against the spread (ATS) in those contests. They have an active nine-game losing streak on the road, and they didn’t beat the spread in any of those losses.
Draymond Green is suspended for this game, and Steph Curry is listed as questionable (he’ll probably sit for this one since they have a more important game tomorrow in Memphis).
The Hawks have lost their last two home games, but they have a winning record at home this season, 18-15. They also stood toe-to-toe with the Warriors when they visited them in January, losing by two in overtime without Clint Capela playing. His presence and home court should make a massive difference for Atlanta, and they should earn a much-needed win comfortably.
NBA Best Bet #2: Philadelphia 76ers Alternate Spread -12 (+110)
No team in the NBA has been better than Philly since December 1, and their next opponent is the team with the fourth-worst record this season, the Charlotte Hornets. While Philly’s first trip to North Carolina didn’t go well, and LaMelo Ball didn’t play that night either, the 76ers are a much different team than they were in November. Philly will also have both Joel Embiid and James Harden this time around.
Charlotte also has not done well against the spread at home. Their ATS record at home this season is 13-20-1, compared to 18-17-1 on the road. The Hornets’ last game was a 16-point loss at home to the Cavaliers. Philadelphia’s last game was a nine-point win in Cleveland against those same Cavaliers, who own the highest net rating in the NBA. This Sixers team is legit, and this Hornets team has their eyes on a certain French phenom. I think buying extra points on the 76ers is smart for this one.
NBA Best Bet #3: Houston Rockets Money Line (+180)
I know, I know, I just finished talking about a team that’s eyeing the draft, and now I’m picking a team with an even worse record to not only cover, but win. It shouldn’t make sense, but it does. The Rockets have been competitive at home this season, with 11 of their 17 wins and a 17-16-2 record against the spread in Toyota Center. They’ve won their last two games, both in Houston, against the championship-favorite Boston Celtics, and the Los Angeles Lakers (without LeBron James or Anthony Davis, but still a win).
Their opponents tonight, the New Orleans Pelicans, have struggled on the road and are shorthanded. Zion Williamson and Jose Alvarado are both out. The Pelicans are 11-23 in away games and 12-22-0 ATS on the road. They’ve lost five of their last six road games this season. They aren’t quite Warriors-level on the road, but they’ve quietly been miserable too. Take the Rockets to earn another home dub.