AL MVP Futures Breakdown, including the Best Longshots like Luis Robert and Randy Arozarena

AL MVP Front Runners

Shohei Ohtani (+190)

Mike Trout (+450)

Aaron Judge (+500)

Julio Rodriguez (+700)

Shohei Ohtani is genuinely one of one. He hit 34 bombs last season while posting a 2.33 ERA in 166 innings pitched with 219 strikeouts. He would have won his second straight AL MVP if Aaron Judge didn’t break the AL home run record that stood since 1961. How unique is Ohtani? He has +190 odds of winning an award that every single player in the AL is eligible for. 

Ohtani’s teammate, Mike Trout, is second in MVP odds, which might be wild, considering the two have not played in the MLB postseason together since teaming up in 2018. However, the three-time MVP posted a .999 OPS last season and hasn’t slipped under .990 since 2013. His biggest issue has been health, as he has failed to eclipse 140 games since he won the MVP in 2016. However, if he can stay on the field, he has proven to be a near lock for at least a top-five finish in the AL MVP race.

Aaron Judge smacked an MLB-high 62 home runs and drove in 131 runs last season as he snagged his first career MVP trophy. The slugger may take a step back, but if he can still hit over 50 home runs while playing for the powerhouse Yankees, he will remain in the mix for AL MVP. 

Julio Rodriguez did the impossible last season, leading the Seattle Mariners to the playoffs for the first time in more than 20 seasons. He won the ROY, was named an All-Star, and won a Silver Slugger after slashing .284/.345/.509/.853. The slugger also swiped 25 bags, all in just 132 games. The former top prospect has the potential to break out even further during his second season.

Some Midtier Players

Yordan Alvarez (+1100)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1200)

Jose Ramirez (+1500)

Corey Seager (+2000)

Rafael Devers (+2000)

Outside of Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez may have the most pop of any hitter in the American League. He could easily hit 40 home runs this season after smashing 37 in 135 games in 2022.

Vlad Jr. is just two years removed from a 48-home run campaign that saw him finish second in AL MVP voting to Ohtani. If anything was to happen to the latter, the former has the potential to be right back in the mix.

Consistency and production have been vital for Jose Ramirez. Still, if he takes another step forward in production while others are less fortunate, he could finally take home the AL MVP after finishing in the top six in five of the last six seasons. Corey Seager and Rafael Devers are the key cogs to their offenses this season and should garnish MVP votes if they can lead their respective teams to the postseason. 

AL MVP Longshots

Adley Rutschman (+2500)

Luis Robert (+4000)

Giancarlo Stanton (+6000)

Eloy Jimenez (+8000)

Randy Arozarena (+10000)

Adley Rutschman could be what Julio Rodriguez was to Seattle (top prospect-turned-franchise hero). In contrast, Luis Robert, a former consensus top-three prospect, can do the same if he avoids a long trip to the IL for a third consecutive season.

Giancarlo Stanton has yet to come close to replicating his MVP season from 2017, but it’s good to know he has the potential to lead the league in home runs.

Eloy Jimenez is nearly a carbon copy of his teammate Luis Robert, a former blue-chip prospect who can’t avoid the IL but oozes MVP-caliber talent.

Lastly, Randy Arozarena owned the World Baseball Classic and has proven he can handle the best pitching at the MLB level (1.121 postseason OPS). Considering his resume, the former ROY should be regarded as more of an AL MVP favorite than a longshot.