The Washington State Cougars (14-15) will take on the California Golden Bears (3-25) in a battle of Pac-12 basement dwellers. WSU has won four in a row after a road win against Stanford 67-63. They are finishing the season strong and have an outside chance to finish in the top four in the conference standings.
The Cal Golden Bears have lost 12 in a row and are in the midst of their worst season in program history. They have lost 12 in a row and have just two wins in the conference. They fell to the Cougars 66-51 in early January in Pullman, Washington.
Washington State vs. California
|Washington State Cougars||-11.5||o125.5||-600|
|California Golden Bears||+11.5||u125.5||+430|
Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
Washington State vs. California Match Details
Fixture: Washington State Cougars at Cal Golden Bears
Date and Time: Saturday, February 25th at 5:00 PM ET
Venue: Haas Pavilion
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Washington State Cougars own a 1.12 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 45th in the nation. Cal has the 143rd-best AdjDEF SQ at 1.01. WSU does average or well in all key stats but spacing, where they are in the 95th percentile. Additionally, they are 100th in rim & three SQ PPP. Conversely, the Bears are in the 46th percentile in defensive spacing and 198th in defensive rim & three SQ PPP.
The Cougars own high-frequency numbers in catch-and-shoot three-point, half-court, isolation, P&R ball screen, and post-up shot types. However, the Cougars have been hit-or-miss in those shot types, ranking 27th in catch-and-shoot three-pointers (1.09 SQ PPP) and 348th in post-up (0.80 SQ PPP). Conversely, the Golden Bears are outside the top 200 in defending all shot types that the Cougs take at a high frequency.
The Golden Bears have a 1.00 AdjOFF SQ, the 193rd-best mark in the country. WSU has posted a 0.96 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 48th in the country. The Golden Bears are outside the top 200 in all key categories except FTR (free throw rate), where they are 188th in the country. WSU is 103rd in defensive FTR.
WSU is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, isolation, midrange, off-screen, P&R ball screen, and post-up. However, outside the cut and post-up, they have been abysmal in SQ PPP in all high-frequency shot types. Cal is 89th in the defensive half-court.
Washington State vs. California Prediction
Oh my lord, Cal is so bad this season. The Golden Bears are having one of the worst seasons of a Power 7 team in college basketball history, let alone in program history. However, they have been solid in the defensive open three rate metric, an extreme deficiency of the Cougs.
WSU has been solid in catch-and-shoot three-pointers. While the Bears haven’t been able to stop shots from the perimeter, they do a decent job defending most of the Cougs’ high-frequency shots. Cal is getting 11 points at home, and if they can stimy the Cougs down low, they should be able to show some life in this Pac-12 matchup. Grab the Bears with the points in this one.