The (#22) TCU Horned Frogs (20-11) will square off with the (#12) Kansas State Wildcats (23-8) on Thursday night.
TCU will be without big man Eddie Lampkin for the conference tourney, as he has stepped away from the team for personal reasons. They enter the tournament 3-2 in their last five with wins over Texas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. Meanwhile, Kansas State was one of the hottest teams in the country before losing to West Virginia in their regular-season finale. Guard Desi Sills is questionable for Thursday’s clash against the Horned Frogs. He is fourth in points and second in assists this season for KSU.
TCU vs. Kansas State Betting Odds
|TCU Horned Frogs||-2||o148||-130|
|Kansas State WIldcats||+2||u148||+110|
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
TCU vs. Kansas State Match Details
Fixture: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats (Neutral)
Date and Time: Thursday, March 9, 2023, at 7:00 PM ET
Venue: T-Mobile Center
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The TCU Horned Frogs own a 1.19 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 4th in the nation. Kansas State has the 25th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.94. TCU does well in all key stats but spacing and shot-making, where they are in the 17th percentile or worse. Conversely, the Wildcats are in the 4th percentile in defensive shot-making but the 60th percentile in defensive spacing. Moreover, the KSU defense will be disadvantaged in shot selection and FTR (free throw rate).
The Horned Frogs own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, and transition shot types. They are in the top 20 per SQ PPP in transition and scoring at the basket but are 199th (1.11 SQ PPP) in scoring off the cut. Conversely, the Wildcats are excellent at defending the cut but awful in transition.
The Kansas State Wildcats have a 1.16 AdjOFF SQ, the 16th-best mark in the country. TCU has posted a 0.93 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 18th in the country. The Wildcats are in the top 150 in all essential categories except the open three rate, where they are 309th in the country. TCU matches up exceptionally well on defense, especially with a 20.5% defensive open three rate metric (61st in the country).
KSU is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch-and-shoot three-pointers, cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, off-screen, P&R ball screen, and transition. They are in the top 100 in all those shot types, with a significant edge in scoring off the cut, their highest-frequency shot.
TCU vs. Kansas State Prediction
The shot-making metric is my favorite data point ShotQuality has to offer. Both defenses are in the 20th percentile or better in defensive shot-making, while the offenses are mediocre to poor in the metric’s counterpart. The loss of Eddie Lampkin might hamper TCU’s defense, but neither team should feist on offense giving the edge to the under on the total.