The Penn State Nittany Lions (22-12) and (#5) Purdue Boilermakers (28-5) will face off in the Big Ten Championship Game on Sunday.
Penn State has used dramatics to get to this point, beating Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana by a combined nine points in the first three rounds. They needed overtime to beat Northwestern and survived a late surge by Indiana to get to the title game. Meanwhile, Purdue blew out Ohio State to make Sunday’s finale.
Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Odds
|Penn State Nittany Lions||++7.5||o134,5||+285|
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Penn State vs. Purdue Match Details
Fixture: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers (Neutral)
Date and Time: Sunday, March 12, 2023, at 2:30 p.m. ET
Venue: United Center
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Penn State Nittany Lions own a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 83rd in the nation. Purdue has the 4th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.90. PSU does poorly in all key stats but spacing and shot-making, where they are in the 99th percentile or better. Conversely, the Boilermakers are excellent in all defensive key categories but are in just the 42nd percentile in defensive spacing. However, Purdue is in the 1st percentile in defensive shot selection, a weakness of Penn State.
The Nittany Lions own high-frequency numbers in catch-and-shoot three-point, half-court, isolation, midrange, off-screen, P&R, and post-up types. Analytically, they are excellent off the cut, in the midrange and shooting the three ball. Unsurprisingly, the Boilermakers are solid in most defensive shot types but have sometimes struggled to defend the perimeter.
The Boilermakers have a 1.21 AdjOFF SQ, the best mark in the country. However, PSU has posted a 0.96 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 46th in the country. In addition, the Boilermakers are in the top 100 in every key offensive metric, but in the rim & three rate and open three rate metrics. As a result, the PSU defense will be at a significant disadvantage in shot-making and spacing.
Purdue is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch-and-shoot three-pointers, half-court, off-screen, and post-up. In addition, with star Zach Edey at center the Boilermakers run the most post-up sets in the country. On the other hand, the Nittany Lions have been average in defending the low block.
Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction
Purdue has a massive advantage in the post and should be able to expose a mediocre Penn State post defense. With a short line, I like the Boilermakers with the points for the first half.