The Ohio State Buckeyes (11-14) will take on the Iowa Hawkeyes (16-9) on Thursday night. The Buckeyes are in a tailspin, losing six straight and 11 of their last 12. Despite opening the season with NCAA Tournament aspirations, they lead only lowly Minnesota in the conference standings. Iowa is 7-3 in their last ten and three spots off of the top spot in the Big Ten standings. Star forward Kris Murray is averaging 21 points and 8.5 rebounds per game.
Ohio State vs. Iowa
|Ohio State Buckeyes||+7.5||o152.5||+260|
Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
Ohio State vs. Iowa Match Details
Fixture: Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes
Date and Time: Thursday, February 16, 2023, at 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Carver-Hawkeye Arena
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Ohio State Buckeyes own a 1.13 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 39th in the nation. Iowa has the 37th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.94. Ohio State does poorly in all key stats except shot-making, where they are in the 84th percentile. They are also 55th in rim & three SQ PPP. Conversely, the Hawkeyes are in the 33rd percentile in defensive shot-making but 221st in defensive rim & three SQ PPP. Iowa is top 70 in defensive shot selection, while OSU is 313th in offensive shot selection.
The Buckeyes own high-frequency numbers in isolation, midrange, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. However, they are outside the top 200 in all those shot types except midrange, where they have a 0.77 SQ PPP (143rd in the nation) and transition, with a 1.30 SQ PPP (174th in the country). Conversely, the Hawkeyes have struggled against all those shot types, highlighted by a 0.78 SQ PPP (275th in the nation)
The Hawkeyes have a 1.18 AdjOFF SQ, the 5th-best mark in the country. OSU has posted a 0.96 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 46th in the country. The Hawkeyes are in the top 80 in shot selection and spacing. The Buckeyes are in the bottom 25th percentile in spacing while excelling in shot selection (seventh percentile).
Iowa is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, cut, finishing the rim, isolation, midrange, off-screen, post-up, and transition. Iowa has been solid in the midrange and post-up, while Ohio State has done an admirable job on defense.
Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction
Shockingly, Ohio State has been so bad in offensive shot selection and spacing this season but halfway decent in shot-making. ShotQuality believes their record should be better than it is, not because of that necessarily, but because they’ve also played tough on defense.
A lot of Iowa’s offensive strengths should be nullified by a stout OSU defense, while the Buckeyes may regress on the offensive end. Grab the under in this Big Ten matchup.