The (#16) Miami Hurricanes (26-7) will take on the (#21) Indiana Hoosiers (23-11) in the Round of 32 on Sunday. The two teams experienced completely different first games, with Miami playing a back-and-forth with Drake but ultimately winning 63-56. The Hurricanes trailed late but used a 16-1 run in the game’s waning minutes to escape from the jaws of defeat. Meanwhile, Indiana smoked Kent State 71-60 and led by 16 points at one point. They held Kent to 31% shooting from the field.
Miami vs. Indiana: Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Fixture: Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers (Neutral)
Date and Time: Sunday, March 19, 2023, 9:20 p.m. ET
Venue: MVP Arena
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Miami Hurricanes own a 1.14 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 34th in the nation. Indiana has the 93rd-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.99. Miami does well in all key stats, but the rim & three rate metric, the open three rate metric, and the free throw rate (FTR), where they are outside the top 200. Conversely, Indiana is in the top 150 or better in those three metrics’ defensive counterparts. However, the Hoosiers’ defense will be significantly disadvantaged in spacing and shot-making.
The Hurricanes own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, midrange, off-the-dribble three-point, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 160 in all those shot types except while placing in the top 35 at finishing at the rim and transition. Conversely, the Hoosiers have defended those two specific shot types excellently. However, they have been exposed in the post-up, P&R, and midrange this season, strengths of the Hurricanes.
The Hoosiers have a 1.13 AdjOFF SQ, the 39th-best mark in the country. Miami has posted a 0.97 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 57th in the country. The Hoosiers are in the top 60 in shot selection and rim & three SQ PPP. The Hurricanes are just inside the top 85 in defensive shot selection and in the defensive rim & three SQ PPP metric.
Indiana is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding these shot types: cut, finishing at the rim, P&R ball screen, post up, and transition. However, what the Hoosiers are good at offensively, the Hurricanes are also good at defensively, and vice versa.
Miami vs. Indiana: Prediction
This game is evenly matched, with Miami having the edge in offense while Indiana has played solid defense this season. SQ has no real advantage in this game, but I side with the offense in March Madness. Give me Miami on the moneyline in this 4-5 matchup.