The (#9) Gonzaga Bulldogs (27-5) will square off against the (#16) Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-6) in the West Coast Conference Tournament finale on Tuesday night. Gonzaga got all they could handle from a feisty San Francisco Dons team in the semis on Tuesday night but pulled away late with an 84-73 win. Anton Watson dropped a season-high 20 points with seven rebounds and three assists in the win. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s fended off BYU 76-69 to reach Wednesday’s finale. Four Gaels scored in double-figures, led by Alex Ducas with 23.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Money Line |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs | -2.5 | o138.5 | -140 |
| Saint Mary’s Gaels | +2.5 | u138.5 | +120 |
Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s Match Details
Fixture: Gonzaga Bulldogs at Saint Mary’s Gaels
Date and Time: Tuesday, March 7, 2023, at 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Orleans Arena
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have a 1.2 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 3rd in the nation. Saint Mary’s has the 40th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.95. Gonzaga does well in all key stats but spacing, where they are in the 34th percentile. They are also 222nd in the rim & three-rate metric. Conversely, The Gaels are in the 26th percentile in defensive spacing and 57th in the defensive rim & three rate metric. However, the Bulldogs will have a massive advantage in offensive shot-making, placing nearly 300 spots higher in that metric than SMC does in its defensive counterpart.
The Bulldogs own high-frequency numbers in cut, finishing at the rim, P&R, post-up, and transition shot types. They are in the top 100 in all those shot types, excelling in the post-up with a 0.95 SQ PPP (30th in the country). Conversely, the Gaels are outside the top 180 in defending all those shot types, including a 0.91 SQ PPP in defensive post-up (286th in the country).
The Gaels have a 1.18 AdjOFF SQ, the 7th-best mark in the country. Gonzaga has posted a 0.96 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 59th in the country. The Gaels are in the top 40 in the rim & three rate metric, shot selection, the open three rate metric, and rim & three SQ PPP. However, the Zags are outside the top 240 in all those defensive key categories except the rim & three rates metric, where they are 125th in the country.
SMC is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch-and-shoot three-pointers, finishing at the rim, half-court, off-the-dribble three-pointers, and P&R ball screen. However, Gonzaga is outside the top 200 in defending those shot types, with the Gaels having a massive edge in the offensive half-court.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s Prediction
The “Zags” must be tired of all the national love given to their conference foe Saint Mary’s. This conference championship represented a lot for both teams. a Gaels win will mean they took the season series over the Bulldogs and their second WCC championship win in five years. The “Zags” match up well and are giving to few points not to be the side of choosing here, especially with them wanting to crush the hopes of the Gaels.
