The (#25) Florida Atlantic Owls (31-3) will face off against the (#24) Memphis Tigers (26-8) in the Round of 64 on Friday. FAU won the C-USA regular and postseason, punching their ticket to the Big Dance for the second time in 30 years. Their 31 wins were 10 more than their previous season high in 2011. Meanwhile, Memphis shocked the world by beating conference powerhouse Houston in the AAC title game. They faced a Cougars team without star Marcus Sasser, but the Tigers dominated that game, giving pundits little belief that Sasser would have made any difference.
FAU vs. Memphis Betting Odds
|Florida Atlantic Owls||+2||o153||+115|
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
FAU vs. Memphis Match Details
Fixture: Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Memphis Tigers (Neutral)
Date and Time: Friday, March 16, 2023, at 9:20 p.m. ET
Venue: Nationwide Arena
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Florida Atlantic Owls own a 1.10 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 66th in the nation. Memphis has the 58th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.97. FAU does well in all key stats but the free throw rate (FTR) metric, where they are 240th in the country. Conversely, the Tigers are 270th in defensive FTR and will be significantly disadvantaged in defensive spacing and shot selection.
The Owls own high-frequency numbers in catch-and-shoot three-point, cut, finishing at the rim, off-the-dribble three-point, P&R, and transition shot types. They are in the top 160 in all those shot types except transition, with a 1.23 SQ PPP (232nd in the country). Conversely, the Tigers are in the top 120 in defending all those categories except in transition, ranking 214th in that defensive category (1.27 SQ PPP).
The Tigers have a 1.11 AdjOFF SQ, the 57th-best mark in the country. FAU has posted a 0.97 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 62nd in the country. The Tigers are in the top 60 in shot selection, FTR, and rim & three SQ PPP. The Owls are in the top 120 in defending those key stats, including being 19th in defensive shot selection.
Memphis is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding these shot types: cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, midrange, and transition. FAU will have the defensive edge in isolation and midrange while they match up well with Memphis’ ability to score near the rim, off the cut, and in transition.
FAU vs. Memphis Prediction
SQ sides with Memphis a bit here, but a deep dive makes me think the Owls should be able to hang a bit, if not winning outright. However, SQ really likes the under, and I can see why. Neither team has an edge in offensive shot-making or scoring in transition, meaning quick buckets should be more challenging than usual. So let’s grab the under and bet on a Memphis game going under the projected total.