On Wednesday night, the Boston College Eagles (16-16) will face off against the North Carolina Tar Heels (19-12). Boston College needs to win-out if they want to participate in March Madness, but the Eagles can still play spoiler. North Carolina is in full desperation mode, needing to at least make the ACC Tournament semifinals to make the Field of 68 come Selection Sunday, but they will first need to get through BC. They met once this year, in Chapel Hill, with the Tar Heels winning, 72-64. BC forward Quinten Post, who had 17 points in the first matchup against the Tar Heels, is questionable for Wednesday.
Boston College vs. North Carolina Betting Odds
|Boston College Eagles||+11||o138||+480|
|North Carolina Tar Heels||-11||u138||-710|
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Boston College vs. North Carolina Match Details
Fixture: Boston College vs. North Carolina (Neutral)
Date and Time: Wednesday, March 8, 2023, at 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Greensboro Coliseum
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Boston College Eagles have a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 147th in the nation. UNC has the 76th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.97. BC is horrendous in all offensive key categories, ranking outside the top 240 in every single one. Conversely, the Tar Heels are in the 80th percentile in defensive spacing (303rd in the country) and 228th in defensive rim & three SQ PPP (1.09) but are at a massive defensive advantage in all other key categories.
The Eagles own high-frequency numbers in catch-and-shoot three-point, cut, finishing at the rim, half-court, midrange, off-screen, and post-up shot types. However, they are outside the top 250 in SQ PPP regarding all those shot types, including a 0.96 SQ PPP in the half-court (288th in the country). Conversely, the Tar Heels are best in the half-court with a 0.98 SQ PPP (114th in the country).
The Tar Heels have a 1.15 AdjOFF SQ, the 25th-best mark in the country. Boston College has posted a 0.97 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 75th in the country. The Tar Heels are in the top 120 in shot selection and FTR (free throw rate). The Eagles are in the 18th percentile in defensive shot selection (70th in the country) and 73rd in defensive FTR. In addition, the BC defense will have the advantage in the open three-rate metric.
UNC is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: midrange, off-the-dribble three-pointers, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition. However, North Carolina is outside the top 180 in those shot types with immense struggles from beyond the arc. Boston College has been average to poor in defending the perimeter but owns a 1.22 SQ PPP in the defensive transition metric (42nd in the country).
Boston College vs. North Carolina Prediction
Quinten Post is considered a game-time decision for Wednesday’s clash with the Tar Heels, but I don’t see the Eagles hanging close even if he can suit up. UNC has the edge in the SQ metrics while they are desperate to win this game, as Selection Sunday is less than a week away. The Tar Heels should come out hot and run away with this one early if they want to be taken seriously for a March Madness bid.