The (#12) Kansas State Wildcats (19-6) will head to Norman to take on the Oklahoma Sooners (12-13) on Tuesday night. K-State has been one of the biggest surprises this season, sitting just one game behind the top spot in the Big 12 standings. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is just 2-10 in conference play and has lost seven of their last eight while they continue to lose hold of any hope of making the NCAA Tournament.
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma
|Kansas State Wildcats||-1.5||o140.5||-115|
Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma Match Details
Fixture: Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners
Date and Time: Tuesday, February 14th at 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Lloyd Noble Center
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Kansas State Wildcats own a 1.16 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 17th in the nation. Oklahoma has the 68th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.97. K-State does well in all key stats but the open three rate metric, where they rank 286th in the nation. Conversely, the Sooners are 17th in the defensive open three rate metric while doing exceptionally well in all other key defensive categories.
The Wildcats own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-point, cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, off-screen, and transition shot types. They are in the top 130 in all those shot types, led by a 1.08 SQ PPP in shots off of screens (30th in the country). Conversely, the Sooners are in the top 100 in defending all those categories except in transition, with a 1.39 SQ PPP (328th in the nation).
The Sooners have a 1.09 AdjOFF SQ, the 69th-best mark in the country. K-State has posted a 0.93 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 25th in the country. The Sooners are in the top 90 in shot selection and the rim & three SQ PPP metrics. The Wildcats are in the 59th percentile in defensive shot selection and 182nd in the rim & three SQ PPP metrics.
Oklahoma is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, cut, finishing at the rim, isolation, P&R ball screen, and transition. However, K-State is hit-or-miss in defending those categories. They struggle to defend in transition and off the P&R but have done well in preventing quality shots off the perimeter.
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma Prediction
It might come off as crazy, but SQ has OU winning this game. Considering just how hyper-competitive the Big 12 is this season, it makes sense, but tonight’s play should be the under. Oklahoma plays slower, and they must control the tempo if they want to hang with K-State. OU is in the 37th percentile or better in defensive shot selection and shot-making, while the Wildcats are 12th in defensive shot-making. So grab the under and watch the Sooners control the pace of play on their home court.